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Wednesday 27 July 2016

Rapid Innovation and Growth in Renewable Energy -Jessica Trancik, MIT



30mins

More from Jessika Trancik MIT

Technology Improvement and emissions reductions as mutually reinforcing efforts
MIT paper Nov 2015

Executive Summary
Mitigating climate change is unavoidably linked to developing affordable low-carbon energy technologies that can be adopted around the world. In this report, we describe the evolution of solar and wind energy in recent decades, and the potential for future expansion under nations’ voluntary commitments in advance of the 2015 Paris climate negotiations. These two particular low-carbon energy sources—solar and wind—are the focus of our analysis because of their significant, and possibly exceptional, expansion potential.

Technology differs from the static picture we might implicitly assume. Deploying a technology coincides with and engages a variety of mechanisms, such as economies of scale, research and development (R&D), and firm learning, which can drive down costs. Lower costs in turn open up new deployment opportunities, creating a positive feedback, or ‘multiplier’ effect. Understanding this aspect of technology development may help support collective action on climate change, by lessening concerns about the costs of committing to reducing emissions. The deployment of low-carbon energy technologies that are necessary to accomplish greenhouse gas emissions cuts, helps bring about improvements and cost reduction that will make further cuts more feasible.

Among low-carbon electricity technologies, solar and wind energy are exemplary of this process. Solar and wind energy costs have dropped rapidly over the past few decades, as markets for these technologies have grown at rates far exceeding forecasts. In the case of solar energy, for example, the cost of reducing emissions by replacing coal-fired electricity with photovoltaics has fallen 85% since 2000.

Getting these technologies to their current state of development was a collective accomplishment across nations, despite minimal coordination. Public policies to stimulate research and market growth in more than nine countries in North America, Europe, and Asia—including the U.S., Japan, Germany, Denmark, and more recently, China—have driven these trends. Firms responded to these incentives by both competing with and learning from one another to bring these low-carbon technologies to a state where they can begin to compete with fossil fuel alternatives. Technology has improved as a result of both research and successful private-sector commercialization efforts.

Commitments made in international climate negotiations offer an opportunity to support the technological innovation needed to achieve a self-sustaining, virtuous cycle of emissions reductions and low-carbon technology development by 2030. As a way to achieve emissions reductions, solar and wind technologies are already in a cost competitive state in many regions and are rapidly improving. 6 We posit that the more that parties to climate negotiations are aware of the state of these technologies, and especially the degree to which technology feedback stands to bring about further improvements, the more opportunity there will be for collective action on climate change.

These are our summary findings. We make several specific observations about the development of solar and wind energy:

• Over the past four decades wind electricity costs have fallen by 5% per year and solar electricity costs have fallen by 10% per year, on average. Since 1976, photovoltaic (PV) module costs have dropped by 99%. For the same investment, 100 times more solar modules can be produced today than in 1976. Wind capacity costs fell by 75% over the past three decades.

• Solar is now nearly cost-competitive in several locations, and wind in most locations, without considering the added benefit of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions reductions. When these external costs are considered, the cost competitiveness improves substantially.

• Over the last 15 years, the cost of abating carbon from coal-fired electricity with solar in the U.S. has dropped by a factor of seven. Over the last 40 years, the cost has fallen by at least a factor of 50 (given a flat average coal fleet conversion efficiency in the U.S. during this period).

• Wind and solar installed capacity has doubled roughly every three years on average over the past 30 years. These growth rates have exceeded expectations. For example, the International Energy Agency 2006 World Energy Outlook projection for cumulative PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) capacity in 2030 was surpassed in 2012. The Energy Information Agency 2013 International Energy Outlook projection for cumulative PV and CSP capacity in 2025 was surpassed in 2014.

• Countries have traded positions over time as leaders in solar and wind development. Japan, Germany, Spain, Italy, and most recently China have led the annual installed capacity of solar since 1992. Japan was the leader in cumulative capacity in the first decade and Germany led in the last decade. Since 1982, the U.S., Denmark, Germany, Spain and recently China have led annual wind installations. Over this period the U.S., Germany and China traded off as the countries with greatest cumulative installed wind capacity. In per capita terms Denmark has dominated wind installations. Sweden and Denmark have led in per capita cumulative wind R&D. Switzerland and the U.S. have invested the most per capita in solar R&D. The U.S. has invested more cumulatively than any other nation in both wind and solar R&D between 1974 and the present day.

• Current climate change mitigation commitments by nations in advance of the 2015 Paris climate negotiations could collectively result in significant further growth in wind and solar installations. If countries emphasize renewables expansion, solar and wind capacity could grow by factors of 4.9 and 2.7 respectively between the present day and 2030.

• Based on future technology development scenarios, past trends, and technology cost floors, we estimate these commitments for renewables expansion could achieve a cost reduction of up to 50% for solar (PV) and up to 25% for wind. For both technologies this implies a negative cost of carbon abatement relative to coal. Forecasts are inherently uncertain, but even under the more modest cost reduction scenarios, the costs of these technologies decrease over time.

From these observations and modeling estimates, we also draw several broad implications for climate change mitigation efforts:

• Negotiations as opportunity-building rather than burden-sharing. The potential for reducing emissions in the long-term can grow with global collective efforts to achieve near-term emissions 7 cuts. Climate negotiations may provide an opportunity for nations to take advantage of this multiplier effect and drive down the cost of mitigating carbon emissions by 2030. The cost of mitigating carbon can fall faster if countries increase and sustain over time their commitments to deploying renewable and other clean energy technologies. As today’s commitments are strengthened, the potential emissions reductions that can be made in the post-2030 period may also increase.

• Importance of knowledge-sharing and global access to financing. Two challenges should be addressed if renewables growth is to reach its full potential. The upfront costs of renewables can be significant, while the variable costs are low. Equitable financing for all nations will be critical for allowing the global growth of these technologies. Knowledge sharing to bring down the ‘soft costs’ of these technologies, which includes all investments required for onsite construction, will be equally important. Knowledge-sharing and public policy incentives to stimulate private sector development of exportable combined software and hardware systems to reduce construction costs around the world can help support the global growth of clean energy.

• Growing need for technologies that address renewables intermittency. As their generation share grows, intermittency will limit the attractiveness of wind and solar technologies, particularly beyond 2030. Further development of energy storage and other technologies, such as long-distance transmission and demand-side management will be needed to reliably match supply with demand. The current electricity share of solar and wind in most nations, and natural gas back-up generation, leaves time for these other technologies to develop. Lessons learned from developing solar and wind energy can be applied to the development of these other technologies, particularly energy storage.

• Historical legacy. Developing clean energy is a measurable historical legacy for the nations that take part, with the potential for immeasurable benefit to humankind. Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change represent an all-inclusive gathering of nations that has arguably already left its mark by encouraging commitments by a handful of them to drive down the cost of clean energy. Further progress is within reach.

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